Icelanders vote on August 29 on whether to restart European Union accession talks, and the campaign has narrowed to a single question that matters more to anglers, skippers and processors than to anyone in Brussels: who gets the final say over the fish.
The vote does not decide membership. It asks only whether negotiations suspended in 2013 — and formally terminated in 2015 — should reopen. Any accession treaty would face a second referendum. But fisheries broke the last round of talks, and both camps agree the issue will break this one too.
The government moved to settle the point ahead of the vote. Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Katrin Gunnarsdottir told the Financial Times that Iceland would not surrender control of its fisheries or its quota system in negotiations, and that any agreement would have to recognise Iceland's management of one of Europe's largest fishing industries. Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir's three-party coalition has framed the referendum as settling what she called "a debate that has hung over the Icelandic nation."
The industry is not reassured. In a statement published in Vidskiptabladid on July 22, Heidrun Lind Marteinsdottir, managing director of the Association of Companies in the Fisheries Industry (SFS), argued that Iceland's seafood success rests on national control rather than corporate scale.
"The success of the Icelandic fisheries sector is not based on the size of the companies but on the fisheries management system," she said. "The premise of this success is that Iceland has had full control over the fishing grounds and the basic principles of fisheries management."
Marteinsdottir's point about scale is backed by numbers. Undercurrent News' ranking of the world's 150 largest seafood, fisheries and aquaculture companies includes four Icelandic firms — Iceland Seafood International and Samherji tied at 102nd, Brim at 120th, Sildarvinnslan at 147th. Combined Icelandic seafood and aquaculture exports topped ISK 400 billion in 2024; as a single company that would rank ninth globally.
"The Icelandic fishing industry is small in an international context. That is simply a fact, although Iceland is sometimes referred to as a 'fishing superpower'," she said.
Her warning about the EU's Common Fisheries Policy was blunter. "Adaptation to the EU's Common Fisheries Policy would not be a technical formality but a fundamental change in a nation's basic industry," Marteinsdottir said. "Then Iceland would no longer have the last word on the rules that shape the exploitation, management and future of its fisheries resources."
SFS also raised foreign ownership. Under the EU's free movement of capital, Marteinsdottir warned, overseas companies could buy into vessels, fishing companies or fishing rights — the quota-hopping problem that has dogged other member states.
Industry body Fisheries Iceland made the same case in a 23-page document opposing membership, arguing the sector accounts for around 40 percent of total exports. "The success in the fishing industry was not a given but the result of Icelandic decisions on the basis that Iceland has full control of its fishing resources and its exclusive fishing zone," it said.
Not everyone accepts that the door is shut. Gunnar Thor Petursson, a professor of law at Reykjavik University, told RUV that the claim there is nothing to negotiate is simply untrue, pointing to member states that have secured lasting derogations from EU rules. A late-April report from Icelandic consultancy Arctica Finance went further, finding that the largest Icelandic fishing companies would benefit from membership even without quota exemptions, as quota values rose.
Brussels has signalled flexibility. European Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans Costas Kadis told the Financial Times that a deal could include fisheries and aquaculture exemptions. "We can find solutions on issues that are a challenge, such as sharing arrangements on shared fish stocks," Kadis said. "Iceland and the European Union are coming closer - taking into consideration recent geopolitical developments."
That prospect is being watched closely 450 kilometres to the south-east. Bardur a Steig Nielsen, the Faroe Islands' minister of foreign relations and fisheries, said an Icelandic deal that preserved control of the fishing industry would change the calculation for Torshavn. "The road would be paved for us joining the EU," he said. Around 95 percent of Faroese exports are seafood.
The opposition wants the argument kept domestic. Gudrun Hafsteinsdottir, chair of the centre-right Independence Party, which holds 14 of the Althing's 63 seats, urged European politicians to stay out of it.
"It's extremely important that this decision in August will be left to the Icelandic nation," she told POLITICO. "People should just let Icelanders go through this without foreign influences." She added: "The question is whether Iceland should transfer key decisions over fisheries, agriculture and economic policy to the EU. And I believe that is not in Iceland's interest."
Polling suggests she may not need to worry. An April survey put 47 percent against membership and 40 percent in favour, a reversal from a year earlier when 44 percent backed it and 36 percent did not. On reopening talks, the split is tighter still.
"We are divided into nearly equal groups for yes and no," Hafsteinsdottir said. "The referendum will be very tight."
