The Progressive Bassmaster Angler of the Year title has come down to one day on the St. Lawrence River, and a 21-year-old from Carbondale, Illinois goes into it with a 10-point buffer and the biggest smallmouth limit in B.A.S.S. history already on his record.
Trey McKinney's 30 pounds, 11 ounces on Day 2 of the Lowrance Bassmaster Elite at St. Lawrence River came out of a 16-minute stretch on a deep sand flat in Lake Ontario, with one more six-pounder added afterwards. He had fished the same water on Day 1 for 26-8, then watched the bass shut down under boat pressure and had to decide whether to go back.
"I had to catch more," McKinney said. "I was throwing back 3-pounders. I got stubborn today and went and went. The fish were all broke up, and I was getting nervous early on."
The adjustment that unlocked it was a bait change. A drop-shot presentation drew a soft take that told him the fish were feeding on minnows rather than crawfish.
"I casted to one with a drop shot and it kind of nipped it. I could tell it was a big one, and it looked like a minnow fish," he said. "I threw my minnow out there; it came up and thumped it. That was a 6-2."
A 6-13 came next, then another six, then a 6-3 to fill out the limit. "I was so excited, I didn't even know what to do," McKinney said.
Semifinal Saturday was less generous - 26-2, for an 83-5 three-day total - but it stretched his margin over Cory Johnston, the Ontario pro who has won three times on this river and now sits ninth in the event.
"Don't get me wrong, I was shooting for 27 pounds, but I worked my butt off today," McKinney said. "I felt like I was going to throw up a couple times in the morning, but once I caught my first big one I told myself to chill out."
Context matters, because the St. Lawrence has been getting heavier for over a decade. Keith Combs, winner of the 2017 Toyota Bassmaster Angler of the Year Championship event, has been coming with the Elites since 2013 and told North Country Public Radio the cut line has moved by roughly three-quarters of a pound per fish in that time.
"Back in 2013, like 17 or 18 pounds was in that top 50," Combs said. "Now, I think you'll have to catch 21 pounds to make the cut line. That's on five fish."
This week the Top 50 cut demanded more than 23 and a half pounds a day.
Evan Kung sits second on 81-13 and, more importantly for him, has locked in a 2027 Elite Series roster spot with his first Top 10 of the season. "It was a big relief," the Pickering, Ontario pro said. "It didn't start off good this morning. Then I caught a couple big ones and knew that I made it."
Cole Sands is third after boating the tournament's biggest fish, a 7-6 smallmouth he barely felt take the bait. "I saw my drop shot go to the bottom and thought I saw the fish follow it down. I picked up my bait and didn't feel anything," the Tennessee pro said. "I looked down at my LiveScope and noticed the drop-shot weight was hanging out of its mouth."
There was an ending running alongside all this. Mark Menendez weighed in on an Elite Series stage for the last time after 35 years, and Mike Iaconelli made his final tournament appearance before retirement - on the same afternoon a 21-year-old rewrote the record book.
A win on Sunday would make McKinney the youngest Angler of the Year ever, ahead of Kevin VanDam, who was 24 for the first of his seven.
He is not banking on it. The forecast calls for light west-southwest wind, and he wants chop to hold his boat over 40 to 50 feet of water.
"This is my one area," he said. "I have a few other points that had fish that don't have them now. Where I'm fishing, it's either gangster or nothing."